Prepare for Another Historic AMPL Expansionary Cycle
Foreword: Treat this piece as an enthusiastic invitation to complete due diligence on Ampleforth in 2025, not as prophecy.
On occasion, the market offers windows of historically significant buying opportunities on various assets. The current positioning and valuation of $AMPL in today’s market is precisely one of those rare moments.
Since its launch in 2019, AMPL’s market cap has fallen into the $20–30 million range only twice:
- Once during mid-to-late 2023
- Right now, in mid-2025.
The previous instance in mid-to-late 2023 saw AMPL form a bottom trough at approximately an $18M market cap. What ensued was a parabolic growth phase.Over the subsequent six months, AMPL experienced explosive growth, with its supply expanding from 21 million tokens to over 100 million (~4x) by Q4 2023 alone.
The expansion continued robustly into mid-2024, peaking near 269 million tokens. AMPL’s market capitalization increased accordingly, settling between $250 and $300 million.
Overall, from trough to peak, AMPL appreciated over 10x. In other words, an investment at the 2023 bottom saw on the order of a +900% return over the next 6-12 months (andeven higher for leveraged $stAMPL holders).
Today's Opportunity
As of mid-2025, AMPL’s market cap is again oscillating within this historically significant $20–30 million range. The instance is obviously ongoing, so a legitimate 6-12 month return is difficult to quantify against only one fully-realized historical trough in this range.
The only other instance we can potentially look at is in 2019 following the launch of the geyser program, which propelled AMPL to its all-time high valuation of $700M.
If a similar rebound were to occur, AMPL could potentially see a similar or larger expansionary cycle in the coming months. So, can AMPL repeat previous instances in its short history? Yes - and it can do so completely uncorrelated with the broader crypto market.
Correlation Insights
AMPL’s ability to decouple from the broader crypto market continues to be one of the asset’s most notable and strategically beneficial traits. A rigorous quarterly correlation analysis over the past year underscores this point visually. AMPL consistently exhibited near-zero (or, at best, weak) correlations to other major crypto assets.
The heat map below summarizes approximate correlations of AMPL’s price vs BTC, ETH, and SOL., calculated for each quarter in the past year (using daily returns):
As the above heat map demonstrates, the Pearson correlation between AMPL and BTC prices to be only ~0.1 (very weak). In fact, among major crypto-assets, AMPL has one of the lowest correlations to the rest of the market. This remains true today, despite varying market conditions.
In most quarters, the correlation hovered around zero, occasionally tipping slightly positive or negative. For example, in late 2023 (Q4 2024 in the heat map), AMPL was beginning a contraction phase while BTC/ETH were rallying, yielding a mildly negative correlation.
In other periods, both AMPL and the broader market were rising (i.e., Q1 2025, when AMPL had a brief expansion as crypto prices climbed), giving a small positive correlation. However, none of these correlations are statistically significant – historically, all indications showcase essentially uncorrelated behavior.
The pattern of negligible correlation maintains that AMPL is a distinctly non-correlated asset with growth and contraction patterns that are fundamentally separate from the rest of the market. Overall, the key takeaway is that the data clearly reinforces the notion that AMPL’s performance is driven by its internal supply mechanics and unique demand dynamics, rather than by broader crypto-market price movements.
Looking Forward
The limited historical dataset in the $20–30 million market cap range indeed restricts absolute predictive confidence. However, AMPL’s performance pattern and underlying economic principles offer (at least to me) compelling indications. The elasticity embedded within AMPL’s supply mechanics inherently supports expansionary phases following substantial contractions, provided fundamental demand persists or increases.
Given the singular, yet powerfully instructive historical precedent from late 2023 (where the trough delivered returns nearing +900%), the current situation is a significant (and rare) opportunity to acquire a high-value share of the AMPL network.
In summary, at present levels, downside risk on AMPL is historically low, and upside potential is enormous (10-20x). The combination of historical context, AMPL’s robust economic fundamentals, and its demonstrated non-correlation to major crypto assets is hopefully enough precedent to deliver at least a dose of curiosity about adding AMPL as a strategic portfolio asset for H2 2025.
Learn About AMPL: https://www.ampleforth.org/
Buy AMPL: https://www.ampleforth.org/get-ampl/